AAC&U News | May 2004 | Facts & Figures

Survey Details Political Views of College Students, Finds Kerry Leading Bush as Campaign Heats Up

Harvard University's Institute of Politics (IOP) last month released the results of its latest national survey of college students, which revealed that Senator John Kerry now has a double-digit lead over George W. Bush on college campuses. President Bush's approval rating among students has declined by 14 points since October 2003, when the last IOP survey was conducted. Support for Kerry, however, is softer than Bush's support: Many of the surveyed students knew little or nothing about Kerry, and much of Kerry's current support seems to stem from anti-Bush sentiment. The survey also found that a plurality of students continue to identify as "independent" and that a majority hold centrist views. These factors, combined with the relatively high levels of student interest in the election, suggest that the college vote is still up for grabs and could be highly influential in the presidential election this November.

FINDINGS

The Political Landscape on Campus

Sixty-two percent of college students say they have been following the presidential campaign closely; the same number say they will "definitely" vote in November.
College students favor Kerry over Bush by 48 to 38 percent, but the relative strength of support Kerry enjoys is much less than the strength of Bush's support: Thirty-eight percent of Bush voters have a "very favorable" opinion of him, while only 13 percent of Kerry voters have a "very favorable" opinion of their candidate.
Thirty-two percent of college students are "traditional liberals" who support gay marriage and affirmative action and disagree with the "Bush doctrine" of preemption. Sixteen percent are "traditional conservatives" who staunchly support President Bush; the majority of students in this group support the decision to go to war in Iraq and believe that homosexual relationships are "morally wrong."
A statistical analysis of survey results identified two distinct groupings in the political center. "Religious centrists" (23 percent of students) believe that religion should play a larger role in government; however, unlike traditional conservatives, these students support affirmative action and believe that health insurance is a right. "Secular centrists" (29 percent of students), by contrast, favor less intrusive government; members of this group support gay marriage and oppose affirmative action.

Differences in Political Views Between College Students and the General Population

College students are a highly independent segment of the voting population: A plurality (41 percent) report that they are independent or unaffiliated with either of the major parties. Thirty-two percent currently identify themselves as Democrats, and 24 percent identify as Republicans.
College students are more likely than members of the general public to choose a candidate based on his or her positions on the issues (66 percent of students versus 52 percent of the general public), and are less likely to make a decision based on the candidate's personal qualities (28 percent of students versus 40 percent of the general public).
Fifty-seven percent of college students support same-sex marriages and 34 percent oppose them. By contrast, only 33 percent of all Americans support same-sex marriages, and 61 percent oppose them.
College students are now more evenly divided than the general population about the decision to go to war in Iraq. Forty-nine percent of the student population still supports the decision to go to war, while 47 percent opposes it; among the general population, 55 percent support the decision and 39 percent oppose it.

DID YOU KNOW?

College students continue to view the national economy as weak: two-thirds believe it will be difficult to find a job after graduation.
Over the past six months, Bush's approval rating among college students has fallen by fourteen points, from 61 to 47 percent.
By a slim margin, surveyed students said that they would rather have had George W. Bush than John Kerry as a college roommate.

Harvard's Institute of Politics is online at www.iop.harvard.edu. Full results of the Spring 2004 survey, along with results of previous student surveys, are available on the IOP's national survey page.